A pair of 6-1 teams will go toe-to-toe when the Buffalo Bills travel to face the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night to close out Week 9 of the NFL season.
It’s a matchup of the NFL’s No. 1-ranked scoring team in Buffalo and Minnesota’s top-ranked scoring defense.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The Bills are a consensus 3.5-point favorite, in part due to the Vikings starting backup quarterback Carson Wentz in place of injured Kyler Murray.
The line was at 3.0 points midday Monday, with Buffalo backed by 73% of the total bets and 82% of the money wagered on the spread. The Bills’ moneyline had shifted from -150 to -175 while attracting 58% of the bets and 77% of the money wagered.
The game presents an interesting contest between Buffalo’s high-powered offense and Minnesota’s stingy defense. The total points line has moved from 46.5 to 44.5, with the Over backed by 65% of the bets and 53% of the money.
PROP PICKS
–Bills QB Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (-125 at DraftKings): Allen has accounted for multiple touchdowns in each of Buffalo’s first seven games this season. That includes nine touchdowns via the ground, with at least one in all but one game.
–Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-140 at BetMGM): This has been the most popular player prop at the book, despite Jefferson entering the game with a modest 28 catches for 335 yards and four touchdowns on the season. He has topped 55 receiving yards only twice through Minnesota’s first six games. But his best game of the season did come in Week 1 when Jefferson caught 8 passes for 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns with Wentz replacing an injured Murray.
KEY STAT
The Bills have been the first team to reach 15 points in each of their past seven games, according to DraftKings.
THE NEWS
Allen hopes his hours of film study will pay off against a defense that ranks near the top in several major statistical categories.
“It’s not even how they blitz. It’s how productive they are when they do blitz,” the former NFL MVP said. “They bring it from both sides, they’ll blitz the middle, they’ll drop guys that you think are coming. It’s a very in-tune defense.
“Those guys are very smart. They’re playing so well together. It’s hard to game-plan for a team like this because there aren’t any weaknesses.”
That may be true of the Vikings’ defense, but their offense is another story. Minnesota ranks 29th in total offense at 279.4 yards per game and has scored the second-fewest touchdowns (12).
The only team with fewer touchdowns than Minnesota is the winless Los Angeles Chargers, who had nine entering the weekend.
The Vikings will turn to Wentz to start Monday night, with Murray ruled out with a strained hamstring.
Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell has won with Wentz before and hopes to do so again.
“Carson’s going to throw a lot of completions,” O’Connell said. “He’s going to put the ball in play. He’s got such a high, high understanding of not only the offense, but what he’s looking at on the other side.
“He’s the perfect guy in a moment where you can’t have Kyler out there at full strength. … We feel very strongly about (the fact that) when Carson’s in there, we’re going to get really effective quarterback play.”
It won’t be easy to keep pace with the Bills’ high-tempo attack.
Allen has completed 65.9% of his passes for 1,793 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. He also has rushed for 270 yards and nine touchdowns.
James Cook III is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has scored seven rushing touchdowns for Buffalo. The Bills also feature a balanced passing attack, led by Dalton Kincaid’s 401 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
On defense, Greg Rousseau leads the Bills’ pass rush with seven sacks and has a team-high three forced fumbles. Four Buffalo players have one interception apiece.
For the Vikings, Wentz has passed for 276 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in limited action this season. Aaron Jones Sr. is averaging 4.2 yards per carry and has rushed for two touchdowns, while Justin Jefferson has 28 catches for 335 yards and four scores.
Andrew Van Ginkel leads Minnesota with 6.5 sacks, just ahead of Dallas Turner’s six. Byron Murphy Jr. has three interceptions, and James Pierre has two.
INJURY REPORT
BILLS: Wide receiver Joshua Palmer (hamstring) was ruled out on Saturday after he missed practice all week. He left last Sunday’s win over Baltimore because of the injury. Offensive linemen Dion Dawkins (ribs), who has not practiced this week, and Alec Anderson (ankle), who was limited Saturday, are questionable. Defensive lineman Greg Gaines (calf), defensive back Jordan Hancock (hamstring) and wide receiver Tyrell Shavers (knee) also are questionable.
VIKINGS: In addition to Murray, the Vikings ruled out wide receiver Jauan Jennings (calf) and running back Demond Claiborne (knee). Safeties Theo Jackson (quad) and Jay Ward (knee) are questionable. Jackson was limited Saturday after missing practice Thursday and Friday, while Ward was limited all week.
PREDICTION
Allen’s No. 1 priority on Monday night needs to be avoiding poor decisions with the ball that plague him at times. The Vikings have an aggressive defense that can confuse any quarterback, but their offense has sputtered all season. Wentz can push the ball vertically more effectively than Murray, but he also lacks mobility. –Bills 23, Vikings 20